100% Movie Tariffs - How Streaming Subscription Prices and Churn Would React

We’ve been talking about the impact of tariffs on the film industry since early 2025 when the idea was first put out into the media by the administration, and wrote an Op-Ed piece about it for THE HILL. As the sabers rattle from Washington more loudly with renewed energy and the proposed 100% movie tariff is enacted, the consequences will be immediate. Streaming platforms like Netflix, Disney+, and others are likely to respond with subscription price increases and may face rising churn rates due to cost pressures and reduced content variety.

Price Increases

Streamers will see production and licensing costs rise for movies and series made outside the U.S., especially since many platforms rely heavily on globally produced content. Wall Street analysts project a direct pass-through effect: the cost increases would be partially transferred to consumers via higher monthly subscription fees, with some predicting that the typical price could increase by 10–25% depending on the platform’s reliance on foreign content. Smaller SVOD services with less bargaining power or weaker library catalogs are especially vulnerable to these hikes.

Subscriber Churn

Higher prices tend to drive subscriber churn as consumers reassess the value of their subscriptions in light of steeper monthly fees and less international content. The risk is higher during periods of broader economic uncertainty or weak consumer sentiment. Analysts estimate that negative effects on subscriber growth in key markets could result in churn rates increasing by 5–10% in the coming quarters, with especially steep impacts in markets like Europe and Asia where streaming providers compete heavily for market share.

Competitive Impacts and Market Dynamics

With price sensitivity heightened by tariffs, some consumers may downgrade to ad-supported tiers, consolidate subscriptions, or shift to free streaming alternatives, amplifying the churn risk. Platforms with stronger U.S.-made libraries may weather the transition better, but those with an international focus could see slower user growth and diminished margins, cascading across other content categories.

In summary, streaming platforms are projected to raise subscription prices in response to the new tariff, while churn rates will likely rise as consumers seek better value or alternate services in a landscape of shrinking variety and higher costs.

Estimate additional per-subscriber cost passed to consumers by platforms

Streaming platforms are projected to pass on additional costs of $2–$5 per month, per subscriber, in response to a 100% movie tariff on foreign-made films. This estimate is based on analysts’ predictions and recent price hike patterns observed industry-wide when content costs rise.

Breakdown of Estimated Increases

• Platforms with a heavy reliance on international productions (e.g., Netflix, Disney+, Apple TV+) are more likely to be at the high end of the range, with price bumps closer to $5 per month per subscriber.

• Mid-tier and ad-supported services (e.g., Paramount+, Peacock) might keep increases smaller, typically $2–$3 per month, but could be forced even higher depending on future cost structures and content library shifts.

• These per-subscriber cost hikes are comparable to or slightly above recent annual increases across the industry, which have averaged $2–$4 per month in 2024, even without the pressures of a sweeping new tariff.

  
  

Impact Across the Subscription Economy

The projected $2–$5 monthly hike represents between 10–25% of the current average monthly cost for major streaming platforms (now ranging from $9 to $23 per subscriber for typical plans in the U.S.). The added cost will put additional pressure on subscriber retention and value perception, increasing the likelihood of churn if consumers do not see compensatory additions to platform content.

In summary, consumers should expect an extra $2–$5 in monthly subscription costs from leading streaming platforms if the 100% movie tariff is enacted, with highly international platforms most affected.